Primary Matters

Yes, this is another column of mine talking about the midterms.

I apologize to those of you who think this is getting old, but the majority of Americans are right: the federal government is broken. The result is little to talk about except the midterms and the health care charade.

Speaking of broken government, polls show most Americans blame the current gridlock in Congress on hyper-partisanship, and the result is an unprecedented anger against incumbents. Ergo, it is reasonable to expect a lot of turnover in the November midterms.

But more important than the actual midterms are their primaries: they determine how liberal or conservative the candidates for each party will be. Judging by the looks of things, those who dislike the current partisan bickering in D.C. have little to look forward to after this year.

The U.S. Senate primary races in Pennsylvania, California, Arizona and Florida– all of which have been receiving considerable media attention – have two things in common: a low level of civility and high political stakes.

The way these primary races turn out will determine just how much more partisan the Senate could become.

Arlen Specter, the senior senator from Pennsylvania, became a Democrat last April after 44 years as a Republican.

Specter recognized that he did not want to face an uphill battle in the GOP primary against Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). Toomey, a conservative Republican, had challenged Specter precisely for being too liberal.

However, the shift did little to take the electoral pressure off Specter's shoulders: soon Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) announced he would challenge the veteran senator in a Democratic primary – also citing Specter's centrist views.

If Sestak wins the Democratic primary, the Pennsylvania seat will be held by someone either far more liberal or far more conservative than Specter, and one cannot expect that to lead to less partisan bickering. 

Another veteran senator facing a primary challenge for not being partisan enough is former GOP presidential candidate John McCain (R-Ariz). McCain's opponent, J.D. Hayworth, is a former U.S. Representative from Arizona and, like both of Specter's former and current challengers, is far more of an ideologue than the incumbent is.

In fact, Hayworth is so polarizing that his winning the primary could actually cost Republicans the seat otherwise safe with McCain.

Two other GOP primary contests are also turning into races to the far right.

The Republican primary in California became notorious for its low level of civility after candidate Carly Fiorina aired the already-famous "Demon Sheep" ad, attacking opponent Tom Campbell for not being conservative enough on fiscal matters.

The equivalent contest in Florida has seen former state house speaker Marco Rubio rally from a double-digit deficit to a lead in the polls over state governor Charlie Crist. Rubio has attacked Crist ruthlessly on his moderate views, and it seems to be working: Rubio has risen not only to the lead in the polls, but to national conservative stardom.

The common motto for these primary challengers is clear: beat the moderates by running to the far left or right. For some reason, I have a hard time seeing these candidates as potential compromisers in a future Senate.